Epidemic in the Netherlands and Europe, from the perspective of epidemiology

1) Social semi-shutdowns will not continue in endless. The Netherlands and Europe will lift the ban as soon as possible. The epidemic will enter a state of adhesion and fluctuation. therefore, it is necessary to make preparations for a long – term defensive plan. Continue to self-semi-segregated. Wash your hands frequently and keep a social distance. You have to wear a mask. No matter how the news says, be sure to wear a mask in a crowded place.

2) It must be made clear that vaccines and effective drugs will not be widely used in clinic for the next six months or even a year. Medical resources and medical personnel infection will continue to be under pressure. It is important to prevent medical paralysis and weakness.

3) It is hoped that the arrival of summer, with seasonal variations (not temperature), will slow down the virulence of the virus. A trend of epidemic flatness or decline will occur. Hope There will be an empty window time for the development of vaccines and effective drugs. Vaccines and effective therapeutics are the ultimate means to control the epidemic of the coronavirus. At present, the antiviral western medicine Remdesivir may not be sure to use and its side effects are unclear. Hydroxychloroquine is promising, but it is doubtful that it has heart-damaging side effects. Serum antibody treatment is not yet for all of the people.

4) The “Buddhist style” of “group automatic immunity” is not feasible in theory and practice. Only the realization of “active population immunity” is right way.

5) The COVID-19 has become the world pandemic. Unless the Covid-19 like the SARS virus, suddenly stoped the epidemic itself, or Covid-19 as some viruses do, mutates gently and slowly turns to zero point. Otherwise, the reopening of social and economic activities, the re-emergence of mass mobility. The second and third wave of epidemics rewind is inevitable.

6) The most important and the only way of anti-epidemic and self-protection in the next six months is: early prevention and early treatment by using traditional Chinese medicine!!! First, to prevent individuals from falling into the 66.7% (if Covid-19 R0 is 3) of the infected population. Secondly, once infected, block yourself fall into 15% of the critically cases. In this way, the individuals will be saved and the medical collapse in the Netherlands and Europe will be saved, because in next half year, there will be no effective conventional medicine available!

(Private points of view, Dr. Li Jie)

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